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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could character𝓡ise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinctꩵ a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teaꦦms in the Bundesliga🅘 have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that 🀅in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, h𒅌ome strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decrea♎sed over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins are based u♑pon a one-goal-marg🅠in.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of matches h🃏ave a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting biggerꦡ. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about🍌 20% more goals are𝓰 scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on th🧜e other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are🐈 a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season🐻 is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference i🅷ncreased by 16 goals.
A season-specꦉi𝓀fic average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coin💙cidence averages out during the cꦺourse of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense𓆉 and defense are correlated.
Without effects 𒉰of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunit♎ies would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal difference is determineওd by eff🀅ects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day tꦬo match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only r🌊are
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exiꦅst. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you ꦏgot shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective ღgoalscoring opportunit♕ies is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a &bdqu♓o;march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunit🌺ies you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion at the endܫ of the seaso🃏n.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team.✨ The scientist’s search for bogey ไteams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we🐠 know! But 💜it is enough for today, we will let you know another rime.